Ship Attacked; Bab-al-Mandeb Strait

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A ship attempting to transit the Bab al-Mandeb Strait was attacked, boarded and seized by Houthis from the country of Yemen this morning.

The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) announced that it received a report of an incident involving a vessel 65 nautical miles off Al Mukalla, near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait off southern Yemen.

This appears to mean the Houthis in Yemen are "stepping-up" in support of Iran, after US fighter jets attacked critical infrastructure in Iran yesterday.

If the Strait of Bab al-Mandeb is shut down, it will cut off access to the Red Sea and, by extension, to the Suez Canal.  

The Suez Canal handles about $1 trillion worth of goods every year. This equals roughly 12% to 15% of total worldwide trade and about 30% of all global container shipping. Around 50 ships pass through the 120-mile canal daily.

The map below tells the story succinctly.  The Green line shows the shortest (Suez Canal) route from Asia to Europe and vice-versa.  The Red line shows how much longer that same trip must take if the Suez Canal; is cut off:

The red line  shows additional travel miles, adding ten to fourteen extra days of travel time and massively increased Manpower and fuel costs.  

Sailing around the Cape of Good Hope instead of transiting the Suez Canal adds approximately 3,000 to 5,000 nautical miles (about 3,450 to 5,750 statute miles or 5,550 to 9,250 kilometers) to a cargo ship's journey.

Because the exact distance depends heavily on the specific ports of origin and destination, the impact varies by global shipping route:

Voyage Examples

(Nautical Miles) Singapore to Rotterdam: Traveling through the Suez Canal is about 9,632 nautical miles, whereas the Cape route is 13,574 nautical miles, adding 3,942 nautical miles.

Mumbai to London: Shifting to the Cape route increases the distance from 6,279 nautical miles to 10,702 nautical miles—an addition of 4,423 nautical miles.

Shanghai to New York: The Suez Canal route is roughly 12,370 nautical miles, while going around Africa increases it to 14,468 nautical miles, an extra 2,098 nautical miles.

Operational Impacts of the Detour

Time at Sea: The extra mileage adds 10 to 14 days of transit time to a typical Asia-to-Europe voyage.

Fuel Costs: Burning through the detour can add upward of $1 million in fuel expenses per single voyage.

Supply Chain: The longer duration ties up global container capacity and delays delivery timetables.

U.S. Was Warned

Iran warned the United States that if its infrastructure was deliberately targetted, not only would Iran begin hitting infrastructure of other countries in the Middle East, they would ask Yemen to shut down the Strait of Bab al-Mandeb.

Yesterday, the United States did it anyway; attacked bridges and allegedly some power plants in Iran.

This morning, troubles have begun at the Strait of Bab al-Mandeb.

It's almost as if the United States is deliberately trying to wreck the global economy, on purpose.

At the very least, closure of the Suez Canal Route will cause shortages temporarily, as ships are forced to travel and extra 10 to 14 days.   It will also see marked price increases for imported goods.

At worst, a shut down of the Suez Canal Route will cause economic calamity, worldwide via a disruption in Supply Chains that cannot be made-up soon enough to keep businesses afloat.