EXCLUSIVE: New Air Force review supports manned 6th-gen NGAD fighter concept

Source: Breaking Defense

WASHINGTON — A recent internal Air Force analysis supports the development of a manned, next-generation fighter jet, three sources told Breaking Defense — a finding that comes amid a high-profile debate over the future of the multi-billion-dollar Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program.

While the Trump administration will make the final decision of whether to press forward with NGAD, which was paused earlier this year, the review’s results could strengthen the case to keep the program alive and award a contract for the future fighter.

In a statement to Breaking Defense today, Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall did not dispute that the overall conclusion of the analysis supports a next-gen manned fighter, though he did caution that other factors including cost would determine its outcome. 

“While our analysis does demonstrate that there is value in a next generation crewed platform, the current NGAD design comes at high total and unit costs that may be unaffordable,” Kendall said.

“Our analysis also highlights that there may be significant opportunity costs associated with proceeding with NGAD, given the DAF’s [Department of the Air Force] strategic priorities and the potential level of Air Force and Space Force budgets. There are a number of interdependencies and alternative options at various risk and resourcing levels which the next administration will have to consider before making a decision. All options remain on the table,” he added.

The NGAD program was temporarily suspended as the Air Force weighed whether it could afford an expensive next-generation fighter in light of ongoing budget constraints, the breakneck pace of adversary threats, and technological progress on competing spending priorities, especially a budding effort to field drone wingmen dubbed Collaborative Combat Aircraft. The CCA wingmen are expected to be a critical force multiplier for manned Air Force aircraft and have been described as a key component of the envisioned NGAD family of systems.

Kendall said in public comments Thursday that other concerns also influenced the delay, like how the platform would fit into the service’s Agile Combat Employment — a method of dispersing operations to avoid a crippling attack, relying on a network of bases officials fret may not have adequate defenses. The service is also weighing what elements are needed to support an NGAD fighter, like a next-gen tanker, whose fate is currently in limbo.

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From   Breaking Defense

Air Force leaders decided to use the fall to review the NGAD concept, calling in help from former officials and researchers to conduct additional analysis. The process was expected to wrap up in time to inform the Air Force’s fiscal 2026 budget request, though the service recently announced it would punt a decision on the platform’s fate to the incoming Trump administration.  

Without sharing the results, Kendall said publicly Thursday that the NGAD analysis was “mostly done” with the caveat that the new Trump team “may want some additional analysis when they show up.” He noted that the Air Force is “very close to being ready to proceed if that program continues its current form.” 

The Air Force’s NGAD hesitancy sent shockwaves through the defense industry, which after a decade of development was gearing up for a decision on the jet originally expected this year. Boeing and Lockheed Martin are believed to be the prime contractors vying for the jet’s lucrative contract, which would likely be the world’s first sixth-gen fighter. 

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