Republika Srpska: Separatist Threats and Balkan Instability

June, 2024

Republika Srpska's separatist movement is the current most pressing threat in a Balkan region rife with growing tensions.

Executive Summary

• Rising threats of secessionism in the Republika Srpska, the majority Serb territory within Bosnia and Herzegovina led by President Milorad Dodik.

• The United Nations adopted UN General Assembly ‘Resolution 78/282: The International Day of Reflection and Commemoration of the 1995 Genocide in Srebrenica’, frustrating many Serbs in the region.

• Tensions surrounding the local elections in Serbia on June 2nd after the previous round of local elections in Belgrade were widely criticized for electoral irregularities.

• Increased Russian and Chinese economic and political influence in Serbia and the Republika Srpska.

• Anniversary of the clashes between (KFOR) NATO troops in Northern Kosovo serves as a stark reminder of the region’s volatility.

• Ongoing demographic and economic weakness in Serbia, Kosovo, and the wider Balkans continue to fuel discontent.

Figure one: Signs of regional, political and ethnic tensions in the West Balkans [image source: Intelligence Fusion]

Geopolitical tensions are rising in the Balkans in response to the continuing lack of perceived progress on EU membership for Serbia, Kosovo and Bosnia Herzegovina (BiH). This in conjunction with the ongoing unresolved tensions between the ethnic Serbian minorities within Kosovo, and the increasingly vociferous language from the leaders of the Republika Srpska (the Serb minority region within neighbouring Bosnia and Herzegovina), has increased instability across the region. Coupled with economic and demographic challenges, these geopolitical issues have led to increased regional tension.

The highest current tensions revolve around the Republika Srpska, the majority ethnic Serb enclave within the state of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Bosnian Serbs have adopted a more assertive and combative separatist approach since 2022, and the return of Milorad Dodik to the Presidency. Dodik was previously President of the Republika Srpska from 2010 –2018 and part of the governing triumvirate of Bosnia and Herzegovina from 2018-2022.

Figure two: Geographic breakdown of ethnic groups within Bosnia and Herzegovina [image source: Imer Muhovic]

Republika Srpska's separatist movement

Part of Dodik’s current strategy to take steps towards Republika Srpska independence has been to repeatedly challenge the authority of the High Representative in Bosnia.

The position of High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina was created after the Dayton Peace Accords, ending the 1992-1995 Bosnian War, to oversee the civilian implementation of the Accords and represent the members of the Peace Implementation Council (PIC). The PIC, principally comprised of European Countries and NATO members, appoints the High Representative. The role and duties of the High Representative were significantly expanded at the PIC meeting in Bonn in 1997. This meeting granted the High Representative: 1) the power to adopt binding decisions where the local parties seem unwilling or unable to act, and 2) the ability to remove public officials from office who violate legal commitments or the Dayton Peace Accords.

Thus far, all the High Representatives have been European with American deputies; the current High Representative is the German politician Christian Schmidt, appointed in 2021. The Office of the High Representative, and the powers bestowed upon it, remain deeply controversial both inside and outside of Bosnia Herzegovina due to the absolute veto power and the ability to overrule elected local officials. As a result, the position has often been likened more to that of a Viceroy than a democratic politician.

The Republika Srpska National Assembly passed legislation suspending rulings from the BiH Constitutional Court and stopped the publication of the High Representatives’ decisions in the official gazette. This legislation was overturned by the High Representative – however, the Republika Srpska National Assembly subsequently passed legislation effectively permitting itself to overturn the decisions of the High Representative. In summer 2023, Dodik was charged with failing to implement the decisions of the High Representative – the trial began in February 2024 and is currently ongoing. It remains unlikely that the trial will achieve anything other than strengthening Dodik’s position within Republika Srpska.

In addition to challenging the Bosnian High Representative, Dodik has voiced his ambition to hold a referendum on the independence of Republika Srpska, and proposed withdrawing from the unified Bosnia and Herzegovina armed forces, along with judicial and taxation bodies. Dodik and his allies are in favour of a fundamental dismantling of the multi-ethnic Bosnia and Herzegovina state. The most concerning issue for the regional neighbours and the wider European Union are calls from Dodik and other key figures who wish to see the reunification of the Republika Srpska with neighbouring Serbia. Although the idea of independence remains a distant prospect and the actions by Dodik remain mostly rhetorical, he has taken several actions which weaken the bonds between Republika Srpska and the central government in Sarajevo and inflame ethnic tensions.

This has included symbolically holding a Republika Srpska government meeting in Srebrenica the day after the UN General Assembly voted on the resolution marking July 11th as a day of remembrance for the Srebrenica genocide, in which Dodik called for Republika Srpska to separate from BiH. Dodik continues to deny that the actions taken at Srebrenica constituted genocide, even though BiH has a law criminalising genocide denial. Part of Dodik’s current strategy to take steps towards Republika Srpska independence has been to repeatedly challenge the authority of the High Representative in Bosnia.

The position of High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina was created after the Dayton Peace Accords, ending the 1992-1995 Bosnian War, to oversee the civilian implementation of the Accords and represent the members of the Peace Implementation Council (PIC). The PIC, principally comprised of European Countries and NATO members, appoints the High Representative. The role and duties of the High Representative were significantly expanded at the PIC meeting in Bonn in 1997. This meeting granted the High Representative: 1) the power to adopt binding decisions where the local parties seem unwilling or unable to act, and 2) the ability to remove public officials from office who violate legal commitments or the Dayton Peace Accords.

Thus far, all the High Representatives have been European with American deputies; the current High Representative is the German politician Christian Schmidt, appointed in 2021. The Office of the High Representative, and the powers bestowed upon it, remain deeply controversial both inside and outside of Bosnia Herzegovina due to the absolute veto power and the ability to overrule elected local officials. As a result, the position has often been likened more to that of a Viceroy than a democratic politician. The Republika Srpska National Assembly passed legislation suspending rulings from the BiH Constitutional Court and stopped the publication of the High Representatives’ decisions in the official gazette. This legislation was overturned by the High Representative – however, the Republika Srpska National Assembly subsequently passed legislation effectively permitting itself to overturn the decisions of the High Representative. In summer 2023, Dodik was charged with failing to implement the decisions of the High Representative – the trial began in February 2024 and is currently ongoing. It remains unlikely that the trial will achieve anything other than strengthening Dodik’s position within Republika Srpska.

In addition to challenging the Bosnian High Representative, Dodik has voiced his ambition to hold a referendum on the independence of Republika Srpska, and proposed withdrawing from the unified Bosnia and Herzegovina armed forces, along with judicial and taxation bodies. Dodik and his allies are in favour of a fundamental dismantling of the multi-ethnic Bosnia and Herzegovina state. The most concerning issue for the regional neighbours and the wider European Union are calls from Dodik and other key figures who wish to see the reunification of the Republika Srpska with neighbouring Serbia. Although the idea of independence remains a distant prospect and the actions by Dodik remain mostly rhetorical, he has taken several actions which weaken the bonds between Republika Srpska and the central government in Sarajevo and inflame ethnic tensions.

This has included symbolically holding a Republika Srpska government meeting in Srebrenica the day after the UN General Assembly voted on the resolution marking July 11th as a day of remembrance for the Srebrenica genocide, in which Dodik called for Republika Srpska to separate from BiH. Dodik continues to deny that the actions taken at Srebrenica constituted genocide, even though BiH has a law criminalising genocide denial.