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Lions... WE CALLED THIS! And Here It Comes... Inflationary Supply Shocks.
- Core Insights Advisory Services
- Jun 5
- 1 min read
Source: Gregory Mannarino
Date: June 5, 2025
HEADLINE: US Imports Plunge. Trade Wars and Tariffs are being blamed, but its bigger than that.
Let’s break this down.
US Imports Plunging… Why It Matters. (Lions… The US consumer is 70% of GDP. If imports dry up and consumer demand weakens, the entire credit-based system starts to buckle).
By their own numbers… (ECONOMICS 101).
Consumer Demand Collapsing.Imports are a leading indicator of consumer activity. If imports are plunging, it’s not just a trade issue, Americans are buying less. That means. Retailers are ordering less inventory. Distributors are bracing for lower sales. Consumers are tapped out due to rising costs and maxed-out credit.
Inflationary Supply Shocks Incoming.If the US is importing less, particularly from lower-cost producers (China, Southeast Asia, etc.), the replacement is more expensive domestic or regional supply. That drives up prices fueling a second wave of inflation.
Trade War Blowback.Tariffs and trade restrictions were meant to ‘protect’ US industries, that’s the story line we were sold, but now we are importing less raw material and fewer goods. The ripple effect hits manufacturing output, which is already in a deep contraction. This will hit small business supply chains, along with Tech and agriculture sectors-THINK RISING FOOD COSTS.
Job Losses and Margin Squeeze.Lower imports = layoffs in transport, warehousing, ports, and logistics. Combine this with lower retail sales, and margins are being crushed from both ends.