INTEL: Something VERY Unusual, With Horrifying Implications, Taking Place in Gold Market

Source: Confidential

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Analyst's Letter:

Something very unusual is going on. Someone is betting on Gold to triple to $15,000 by the end of this year.

They have been buying December gold call option spreads of $15,000/$20,000 PER OUNCE on the Comex exchange. 

Even after gold prices fell below $5,000, the buyer of these calls has continued to accumulate contracts, with open interest up to 11,000 contracts. (AT 5,000 OUNCES PER CONTRACT!)

Tensions in the Middle East are escalating fast (nearly a third of the US Navy positioned near Iran, plus major US/ allied forces in Europe and the region are on alert).

This looks like a very high conviction/belief of directional trade.

The interesting thing about long dated options is that Far-out-of-the-money calls are extremely sensitive to implied volatility (vega).

If a major crisis happens then gold’s implied volatility spike can inflate the price of the long leg by at least 200% from the current prices even if the spot price doesn’t move that much. 

This means that whoever it is, is betting on a violent upside move in gold in the next couple of months that would spike the IV.

This trade is exactly structured for this kind of tail risk. Consider the cascade:

Military Conflict Triggers → 

• Strait of Hormuz closure (~20% of global oil flows through here)

• Oil spikes to $200/barrel

• Global inflation re-accelerates violently

That means →

Gold gaps up violently overnight

Implied volatility explodes

Those $15,000/$20,000 calls go from worthless to extraordinarily valuable almost immediately

The position started building after gold hit $5,600 and the buyer kept accumulating even as gold fell below $5,000. 

That tells you this person isn't trading based on price action, they are positioning for a specific event they believe is coming.

Let me try to make this as simple and understandable as possible.

Here’s the situation broken down clearly in 10 simple points:   

• A large investor is buying December gold call option spreads at $15,000 / $20,000 strike prices on COMEX.  

• A call option gives the buyer the right to profit if gold rises above a specific price before expiration.  

• These strikes are extremely far above current gold levels (around $5,000), meaning gold would need to triple to reach $15,000.  

• Because the strikes are so high, these options are relatively cheap compared to near-the-money calls.  

• A call spread limits maximum profit but also reduces cost — it’s a structured, calculated bet, not a reckless one.  

• The position started building after gold hit a record ~$5,600, suggesting the investor expects volatility, not a collapse.  

• Even after gold dropped below $5,000, the buyer continued accumulating contracts — showing conviction.  

• Open interest has surged to ~11,000 contracts, which is unusually large for such deep out-of-the-money strikes. 

• The trade can profit in two ways:

  • A sharp rally toward those levels

  • A surge in volatility that increases option premiums before expiry  

Conclusion: Someone with serious capital is positioning for a violent upside move in gold, possibly driven by macro shock, currency instability, or a geopolitical event.

This isn’t a normal hedge. It’s a tail-risk bet on an explosive move higher.

ANALYSIS

Do you have any idea AT ALL what it would mean to me and you if Gold hit $15,000 -$20,000 per ounce?   There would be FOOD RIOTS.  Mayhem.  Chaos.

Food prices would increase TENFOLD+.   Gasoline would be over $20 per gallon at the pump - if you could even find an open gas station.

If you do not yet own guns, you had better get one -- or more.  And a LOT of ammunition.

Buy a hand gun for close-in personal protection

Buy a SHOTGUN for home protection

Buy a Rifle for Hunting food