Goldman: Expect Equities Circuit Breakers TODAY (Monday)

October 25, 2026

Source: Hal Turner

11:31 PM EDT - Sunday, October 25, 2026 -- Minutes ago, a high-level Executive at Goldman revealed what THEY expect today:

"Today we could be seeing +10% in USDBRL, +200bp in long end rates, +30-40bp wider in credit, and -15% in equities.  Circuit break should be hit quickly, and trading will be largely order based subjected to circuit limits."

Let me decode this for you.

Today we could be seeing +10% in USDBRL, . . . "   They expect a TEN PERCENT RISE in oil price (US Dollars)

"+200bp in long end rates, . . ."    (This is a potential CATASTROPHE) Explained below:

When a major investment bank or brokerage house issues this guidance, they are telling you that they project long-term interest rates (like 10-year or 30-year government bonds) to move by a full 2.00 percentage points.

Depending on the exact phrasing of their report, this either means they expect long-term yields to rise by 2.00%, fall by 2.00%, or stabilize at an absolute target level of 2.00% (though in a typical interest rate environment, a 200bp change or directional move is the standard interpretation).

To understand this guidance completely, you have to break down the two pieces of institutional jargon they are using: 200bp and long end rates.

1. Decoding "200bp" (Basis Points)

In the financial world, professionals do not speak in percentage points to avoid catastrophic miscommunications. Instead, they use Basis Points (abbreviated as bp, bps, or spoken as "bips").

• 1 basis point equals 0.01% (one-hundredth of one percent).

• 100 basis points equal 1.00%.

• 200 basis points equal 2.00%.

Why do they use this? It eliminates relative vs. absolute ambiguity. If a bank told you, "We expect a 10% interest rate to go up by 1%," it could mean it goes up to 11% (absolute) or up to 10.1% (a 1% relative increase of 10). Saying "We expect a 100 basis point increase" leaves no doubt: the new rate is 11%.

2. Decoding "Long End Rates"

The "long end" refers to the right-hand side of the bond yield curve. These are fixed-income securities with long-term maturities, typically 10 to 30 years (such as the 10-year Treasury Note or the 30-year Treasury Bond).

• The Short End: Rates deeply influenced by central bank policy (e.g., overnight rates, 3-month, or 2-year bonds).

• The Long End: Rates driven by macroeconomic forces, long-term inflation expectations, and economic growth projections.

What are the Practical Impacts of a "200bp Move"?

A 200bp swing in long-term rates is an incredibly massive, macro-shifting call. In a typical economic cycle, long-term rates usually move in increments of 10 to 25bp at a time. A 200bp projection implies a major economic regime change.

• If they mean rates will RISE by 200bp (this is what they mean): They are predicting heavy inflation or massive economic growth. For investors, this is a warning: bond prices move inversely to yields. A 200bp spike in the long end would trigger a violent sell-off in existing long-term bonds, severely crushing their value. It also means long-term borrowing—like 30-year fixed mortgages—will become significantly more expensive.

". . .+30-40bp wider in credit. . ."

When a brokerage house or bank forecasts that they expect corporate credit to go "+30-40bp wider," it means they expect the yield premium on corporate bonds to increase by 0.30% to 0.40% relative to safe government bonds.

In plain terms, the bank is predicting that institutional investors will demand higher interest rates to lend to corporations because they perceive an increase in market risk or a weakening economic environment.

". . . and -15% in equities. . ."

When a large financial brokerage house or bank forecasts -15% in equities, they are predicting that the overall stock market will drop by 15% over a specific timeframe (MONDAY ! ! ! ! ! !).

If this info from Goldman pans-out, it seems as though tomorrow, Monday, October 26 is going to truly be a "Black Monday."   I think we'd probably see MARGIN CALLS all over the place!

NONE of this Goldman info matches what I am seeing in Futures Markets at this hour, but I am not a Licensed Financial Expert and have absolutely zero special knowledge or inside information about matters financial.  You should NOT make any financial transactions based on what you read on this website or hear me say on radio; I have NO SPECIAL TRAINING and cannot give financial advice.   You should consult with a Licensed Financial Expert before making any financial decisions.